· AQT Research· Sources: CNBC
Framework
| Module | Indicators | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Rates | 2Y/10Y, TIPS, Fed funds futures | Discount rate; cross-asset valuation |
| FX | DXY, JPY, carry baskets | Risk transmission |
| Equities | Rotation, breadth, VIX | Positioning and sentiment |
| Credit | HY spreads, funding | Tail risk and liquidity |
Evidence today
Headlines support the energy and oil theme; cross-check with framework indicators before drawing conclusions.
- Three cargo ships struck off Iran's coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)
- Rheinmetall sees sales growth of up to 45% in 2026, says it's in 'prime position' to arm the U.S. amid war in Iran (CNBC)
- Oil rises back above $92 as traders shrug off prospect of historic reserve release (CNBC)
- Trump says U.S. will build first refinery in 50 years with investment from India's Reliance Industries (CNBC)
Conclusions
- Identify regime-shift candidates (vol breakout, rate repricing, FX stress).
- Validate across assets (rates → FX → equities/credit).
- Size exposure by volatility; cap correlated clusters.
- Review via post-trade attribution.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. Sources: CNBC.