· AQT Research· Sources: CNBC
Framework
| Module | Indicators | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Rates | 2Y/10Y, TIPS, Fed funds futures | Discount rate; cross-asset valuation |
| FX | DXY, JPY, carry baskets | Risk transmission |
| Equities | Rotation, breadth, VIX | Positioning and sentiment |
| Credit | HY spreads, funding | Tail risk and liquidity |
Evidence today
Headlines support the rates and inflation theme; cross-check with framework indicators before drawing conclusions.
- Trump threatens to fire Powell if the Fed chair doesn't leave office on his own (CNBC)
- A few tankers and ships are going through the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the latest traffic (CNBC)
- Bank of America tops estimates as CEO Brian Moynihan says consumer banking is 'healthy' (CNBC)
- Cleveland Fed President Hammack expects interest rates to stay on hold 'for a good while' (CNBC)
Conclusions
- Identify regime-shift candidates (vol breakout, rate repricing, FX stress).
- Validate across assets (rates → FX → equities/credit).
- Size exposure by volatility; cap correlated clusters.
- Review via post-trade attribution.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. Sources: CNBC.