· AQT Research· Sources: CNBC
Framework
| Module | Indicators | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Rates | 2Y/10Y, TIPS, Fed funds futures | Discount rate; cross-asset valuation |
| FX | DXY, JPY, carry baskets | Risk transmission |
| Equities | Rotation, breadth, VIX | Positioning and sentiment |
| Credit | HY spreads, funding | Tail risk and liquidity |
Evidence today
Headlines support the rates and inflation theme; cross-check with framework indicators before drawing conclusions.
- 'Resumption of hostilities': seized ship, vessel attacks push U.S.-Iran ceasefire toward brink (CNBC)
- U.S. struck, seized Iranian-flagged ship Touska in Gulf of Oman, Trump says (CNBC)
- European stocks open lower Gulf tanker attacks threaten ceasefire (CNBC)
- Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries sees shares jump nearly 4% on first ever warship export deal (CNBC)
Conclusions
- Identify regime-shift candidates (vol breakout, rate repricing, FX stress).
- Validate across assets (rates → FX → equities/credit).
- Size exposure by volatility; cap correlated clusters.
- Review via post-trade attribution.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. Sources: CNBC.