每日简报（2026-04-21）：利率与通胀

论点. 今日叙事主线为利率与通胀；以下为信源与影响。

主要信源

1. Trump says 'I'll remember' companies that don’t seek tariff refunds (CNBC)
2. Trump tells CNBC he expects U.S. to make ‘great deal’ with Iran (CNBC)
3. UPS and FedEx have begun filing for some tariff refunds (CNBC)
4. Trump surprised by stock market comeback amid Iran conflict, thought Dow would be down 20% (CNBC)
5. Trump says Anthropic is shaping up and a deal is 'possible' for Department of Defense use (CNBC)
6. Trump says 'maybe' government should help struggling Spirit Airlines (CNBC)

影响

• 利率：央行与通胀新闻带来的重定价风险；久期与实际利率驱动跨资产估值。
• 外汇：DXY、JPY 为风险锚；结合今日主题关注避险与套息轮动。
• 股市：板块轮动与波动率（VIX/MOVE）指导仓位；宽度与财报决定 regime。
• 商品：能源与金属为情绪与通胀代理；供给与储备与今日叙事挂钩。

不构成投资建议，仅供信息参考。来源：CNBC。