· AQT Research· Sources: CNBC
Framework
| Module | Indicators | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Rates | 2Y/10Y, TIPS, Fed funds futures | Discount rate; cross-asset valuation |
| FX | DXY, JPY, carry baskets | Risk transmission |
| Equities | Rotation, breadth, VIX | Positioning and sentiment |
| Credit | HY spreads, funding | Tail risk and liquidity |
Evidence today
Headlines support the Asia macro and FX theme; cross-check with framework indicators before drawing conclusions.
- Trump says Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks (CNBC)
- U.S. soldier arrested for $400K winning Polymarket bets on Maduro capture, DOJ says (CNBC)
- China's DeepSeek releases preview of long-awaited V4 model as AI race intensifies (CNBC)
- Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce (CNBC)
Conclusions
- Identify regime-shift candidates (vol breakout, rate repricing, FX stress).
- Validate across assets (rates → FX → equities/credit).
- Size exposure by volatility; cap correlated clusters.
- Review via post-trade attribution.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. Sources: CNBC.