· AQT Research· Sources: CNBC
Framework
| Module | Indicators | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Rates | 2Y/10Y, TIPS, Fed funds futures | Discount rate; cross-asset valuation |
| FX | DXY, JPY, carry baskets | Risk transmission |
| Equities | Rotation, breadth, VIX | Positioning and sentiment |
| Credit | HY spreads, funding | Tail risk and liquidity |
Evidence today
Headlines support the rates and inflation theme; cross-check with framework indicators before drawing conclusions.
- SoftBank sinks 12% as Asia tech rout tracks declines in the U.S. (CNBC)
- Iran behind attack on cargo vessel near Oman in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. official tells MS NOW (CNBC)
- ON Semiconductor strikes $7 billion deal for Synaptics in physical AI push (CNBC)
- Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says inflation is too high; Williams sees price pressures easing (CNBC)
Conclusions
- Identify regime-shift candidates (vol breakout, rate repricing, FX stress).
- Validate across assets (rates → FX → equities/credit).
- Size exposure by volatility; cap correlated clusters.
- Review via post-trade attribution.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. Sources: CNBC.